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The Athletic (paywall)

Commanders defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. wants to ‘feed the studs’

Joe Whitt Jr. has zero interest in revealing secrets.

“Why would I say that right now when people are looking? They’ll figure it out when we play,” Whitt said following Wednesday’s organized team activity session. “But we are happy, and I’m not trying to be smart, trust me. Believe me. But the advantage that we have right now is people don’t know, and we’re gonna keep that advantage until they figure it out.”

“You’re going to hear me talking about ‘feed the studs,’” the former Cowboys secondary coach continued. “We are designing our defense around the players that we have. I think if you’re limited to saying, ‘Hey, we run one scheme, and that’s all we have,’ no. You have the players that you have, and you make sure that you are putting them in the best position to play high-level football.”

Whitt emphasized this message at his introductory news conference in February: “You got to earn your right to be a stud so we can design things particularly for you.”

Commanders.com

Larry Izzo working ‘24/7’ to figure out best way to succeed at new kickoff

[W]hether it’s the Burgundy & Gold or New York Jets who starts on offense, the opening play of the Dan Quinn era is going to look unlike anything the NFL has seen in its history.

Owners approved the implementation of a new kickoff rule — one that fundamentally changes the play’s structure itself — during the Annuel League Meeting on March 26 to make it safer and more relevant. Rather than sprinting downfield, players are now separated by 10 yards and cannot engage each other until the ball is touched.

Like the other 31 teams, the Commanders are racing to figure out the new structure and how they can use it to their advantage.

“That’s one thing that we’re working through on a daily basis here, 24/7, is to try to try to figure this play out as fast as we can,” said special teams coordinator Larry Izzo. “We look at it as a little bit of a race against time. You’re competing against all the other teams here that are in the same boat.”

Izzo believes that the new rules will be good for the relevance of special teams, players who make a career playing on the unit and the game overall. The stats provided by the NFL back that up; according to the NFL’s research, the rule change will result in a 50-60% increase in returnable kicks and better field positioning for the return team. Competition Committee chairman Rich McKay added in a conference call that “We have to reduce the space and speed that this play was, historically,” McKay said. “The space and speed created an injury factor that — it’s time for us to change that.”

The Athletic (paywall)

How do NFC running back groups stack up heading into the 2024 season?

Below is a glimpse at the state of each NFC running back room heading into the back end of the league’s offseason workouts. Here’s what went into this study (stats via TruMedia):

  • Rush success rate (percentage of plays that gain 50 percent or more of yards needed for a first down on first or second down, or gain a first down on third or fourth down)
  • Expected points added (EPA) per carry
  • Yards per carry
  • EPA per carry/target

Washington Commanders

Despite the addition of Austin Ekeler, the arrow still seems to point north for Brian Robinson Jr. as he heads into his third year — he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and scored nine total touchdowns (five rushing, four receiving) last season. There’s no doubt, though, that Ekeler will garner plenty of attention given his prolific production with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2021 and 2022.

That said, expecting anything from Ekeler like those two seasons would be fool’s gold. Chris Rodriguez should give the Commanders nice depth as a No. 3 tailback after averaging 4.8 yards per carry in 2023.

Commanders Wire

One analytics model has Commanders with fewest wins in the NFL in 2024

How good will the Commanders be in 2024? Some believe they can win anywhere from six to eight games, which would be a good building block in Quinn’s first season.

However, Sports Info Solutions doesn’t believe in Washington in 2024.

SIS recently used its model to project win totals for all 32 NFL teams next season. The Commanders came in last with a projected 3.2 wins.

Notes from the Sports Information Solutions article:

Model Overview (How did we get these numbers?)

Our model utilizes 18 features that are a combination of game, team, and player level metrics.

Game level metrics include whether or not the game is in the postseason, weather predictions like wind speed and precipitation probability, and a home team indicator.

Some of the team level metrics include weighted points for and points against averages, both offensive and defensive weighted penalty yards, and some possession metrics in the form of snaps per game or drive. Each of these metrics is computed for the team’s past 7 games, with the most recent weighted more heavily.

We use a weighted 16-game average with our Total Points for the player metrics. We calculate the average Total Points for each skill (Passer, Rusher, Pass Rush, etc.) for every player per snap, and then aggregate the projected values for each game to the team level using each player’s projected snap counts for the game.

Then, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation to illustrate variance in player performance by simulating 1,000 games for each player. After each simulation, all of the metrics are incorporated into a Lasso regression model to predict the team’s point total. The distributions of the predictions are aggregated to an average and spread so that point estimates and alternate point estimates can be drawn from the distribution.

Now that there are lines for each game, we can simulate 1,000 regular seasons based on the moneyline output and take the average win total for each team.

Commanders Wire

All 32 NFL teams (including Commanders) ranked by their interior DL

With Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, the Commanders have one of, if not the most, formidable duo in the NFL. Allen and Payne had a down season in 2023. Of course, so did Washington’s entire roster. A new coaching staff has revitalized Allen and Paynem, who could both be in store for a big reason.

In the 2024 NFL draft, the Commanders used the 36th overall pick on Illinois defensive tackle Johnny Newton. Most teams had Newton as a projected first-round pick, but foot injuries allowed him to fall to Washington.

ESPN’s Mike Clay recently ranked every NFL team’s interior defensive line in his 2024 projections. Where are the Commanders?

[spoiler alert: The Commanders were ranked 10th out of 32 teams in the ESPN ranking]

Podcasts & videos

Views from OTAs , Legendary London Fletcher | Command Center | Washington Commanders

Washington Commanders Tavita Pritchard on Jayden Daniels | Darryl Tapp on Jamin Davis | Ken Norton

NFC East links

NFL.com

State of the 2024 Dallas Cowboys: Will Dak Prescott, Mike McCarthy shake past playoff failures?

Eric Kendricks – LB · Year 10

Funny, after the 2021 season, when Zimmer was fired by the Vikings, Kendricks — who played for the coach in Minnesota, earning Pro Bowl and first-team All-Pro honors in 2019 — called Zim out for implementing a “fear-based” culture. But now, after being released for the second time in as many offseasons (by the Vikings in 2023 and the Chargers in 2024), Kendricks is in Dallas, where he signed in part, he said, because of Zimmer, whom he “can’t wait” to work with again. Here’s a lesson, kids: The people you kick on the way up will be there on your way down.

Ezekiel Elliott – RB · Year 9

Oh, man — it’s just one big reunion in Dallas these days. The Cowboys might as well bring back Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin while they’re at it. Zeke’s return after one season with the Patriots was necessitated by the defection of Tony Pollard to Tennessee in free agency. Now he tops a depth chart that also consists of Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman. Will Zeke be enough to spark the ground game? Shoot, seriously … What is Emmitt Smith up to right now?

State of the QB

Prescott has enjoyed outstanding success in the regular season, posting a record of 73-41 in his career, including a 13-2 mark against NFC East teams since 2021. That said, playoff losses could end up defining his Cowboys legacy. In seven postseason appearances, Prescott has lost five times, with both wins coming in the Wild-Card Round. I mean, he didend Tom Brady’s career, so that’s cool. Otherwise, the last two seasons have ended with horrific playoff defeats

I know Jerry Jones wants another Lombardi Trophy. I saw the quote about being “all in” on 2024. But let’s examine what he did during the offseason — or, more to the point, what he didn’t do. He didn’t overspend on free agents or make any outrageous moves in the draft. Using a first-round pick on Tyler Guyton was a very solid decision, and more of a long-term acquisition than a win-now lever pull. Jones might be playing the long game here. Could he end up shelling out for a CeeDee Lamb extension this offseason, with the receiver staying away from mandatory minicamp? Might Jones ultimately make a big splash on the market next offseason, or perhaps give Micah Parsons an extension of his own? The interesting thing is, Jones’ head coach and quarterback are each on the final year of their respective deals, and Dallas definitely should be in win-now mode. McCarthy might not have to reach the Super Bowl, but if he wants to be part of Jones’ future plans, it seems like he’ll need to get to the NFC Championship Game, at the very least.

Barstool Sports

Leader: Brian Daboll Had The Perfect Response When Asked About That Doofus Nick Sirianni Running His Mouth To Giants Fans About Saquon

I have taken the bait on this because, well, it’s June, there’s nothing going on in the sports world, no update on Dan Hurley and no golfer has been arrested. I got time to call Nick Sirianni a doofus because that’s exactly what he reminds me of. The screaming, the attempted shit talking, all that stuff. Pretty sure every Eagles fan I know has called Sirianni a doofus at some point.

SB Nation

The Eagles’ big bet on Kellen Moore fixing Jalen Hurts will define their season

The Eagles’ Jalen Hurts and Kellen Moore pairing will make or break the offense.

Kellen Moore and Jalen Hurts is an odd QB/coach pairing

Stylistically, there couldn’t be a bigger difference between Jalen Hurts and the QBs Kellen Moore has had in his career. While Moore has been accustomed to insanely quick processors and robot QBs in the underneath passing game, Hurts is nothing of the sort. Most of Moore’s QBs in Dallas and Los Angeles were processing what the defense was showing them at an extremely quick clip, and able to get the ball underneath before the play went to chaos. Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert were able to run all of Moore’s seven-yard stop route offense because they were quick in their dropback and even quicker getting the ball out.

Hurts, on the other hand, is more of an RPO-based QB, and that’s been the exact same throughout his entire career. Since Hurts became the starter in 2021, there’s never been a season that he hasn’t finished below seventh in RPO attempts in the entire league, including two top finishes in the last two years. You can attribute this to the offense he ran, sure, but in the non-RPO quick game, Hurts isn’t as developed as a passer as Herbert and Prescott. In the quick game, he’s not as quick of a processor, making the RPO game the go-to for the Eagles’ offense.

Not only is this a weird pairing due to Hurts’ drawbacks as a passer, but in Hurts’ entire career he has been a shotgun-based QB. Since Hurts was drafted, he’s only thrown the ball from under center more than 10 times once, in 2021. In the run game, the Eagles with Hurts as QB have taken less under center run snaps each year. Which makes sense because of how lethal Hurts is as a runner, but again, this doesn’t really mesh with the QBs Kellen Moore has designed an offense for.

Moore seems to be agreeable to whatever the head coach wants, but none of his offenses feel truly like “his”. What is a Kellen Moore offense? What are the calling cards? What does he even do? I wonder what Moore will bring to the Eagles’ offense, to solve the problems that plagued them last year. The one thing that we know Moore doesn’t really do is involve his QBs in the run game, but again, he’s never had a QB like Hurts.

NFL league links

Articles

NFL.com

Ravens K Justin Tucker says he’s spent more time in weight room in preparation for new kickoff format

The Ravens star and future Pro Football Hall of Famer discussed on Thursday how he’s preparing for the changes to the kickoff.

“Just like a pitcher tries to develop his stuff, I’m doing the same thing out here trying to figure out whichever way we can in our minds gain an advantage, gain an edge,” Tucker explained to reporters following Thursday’s OTA session. “Whether that means putting the ball in different spots, making it challenging for a returner to scoop up the ball easily. All those things we’re looking at right now, granted we are kind of in the fledgling stages of what we are trying to accomplish here, what we are trying to figure out.”

The kickoff changes have been a hot topic this offseason. Pittsburgh’s special teams coordinator Danny Smith tossed out the idea of using Justin Fields as a returner, while Chiefs coordinator Dave Toub wondered aloud whether safety Justin Reid might be a better option on the kickoff than Harrison Butker because of his defensive experience.

This might be an overreaction, though. Prime Video analytics expert Sam Schwartzstein — a driving force behind the kickoff changes that first debuted in the XFL — recently wrote on social media he believed the new format won’t require such drastic changes, because he doesn’t anticipate the kicker to be as involved as most expect.

Still, the fact Tucker is preparing for every possible scenario illustrates the uncertainty harbored by many detail-obsessed NFL coaches. Training camp and the preseason will become a testing lab of sorts for these possibilities, and by the time Week 1 arrives in September, most should have a decent understanding of how to approach the new format.

Washington Post (paywall)

Chiefs player is awake, alert after going into cardiac arrest Thursday

BJ Thompson, a second-year defensive end, was brought out of sedation Friday after having a seizure a day earlier.

“He’s alert. He’s awake. He’s coming through quite well,” Rick Burkholder, the Chiefs’ vice president of sports medicine and performance, told reporters Friday. “We don’t have a diagnosis, and in medicine sometimes you don’t have that. He’s awake and alert, and he’s headed in the absolute right direction.”

Burkholder said the 25-year-old began to have a seizure during a special teams meeting and that kicker Harrison Butker ran to the trainer’s room to alert two assistant trainers. Burkholder joined them, as did two more trainers and later Jean-Philippe Darche from the Kansas Health Sports Medicine and Performance Center, which is adjoined to the practice facility.

“As a team, we tried to stabilize BJ and then put him on the floor while he was still seizing, and then he went into cardiac arrest,” Burkholder said. “Our team of that group of people provided CPR for him. He had one AED shock and came back, so he was only in cardiac arrest for less than a minute, a minute and a half. Our players, security staff, coaching staff — they were phenomenal in handling the crisis.”

Burkholder said Thompson was then taken to a hospital, where he was heavily sedated overnight and placed on a ventilator to better facilitate his breathing in that condition. He was brought out of sedation Friday and removed from the ventilator.

Pro Football Talk

Unpaid taxes are the next wave of NIL complications

As one source with knowledge of the dynamics of the NIL marketplace recently explained it to PFT, unpaid taxes will be the next big problem for name, image, and likeness payments. Plenty of kids are getting their money and spending it — without paying taxes on it or otherwise setting aside the money to do so.

The tax rates vary from state to state. The federal laws are universal and undeniable. For $1 million, the current federal rate is 37 percent. Which means that, if the payment is made this year, $370,000 will need to be paid to the federal government by April 15, 2025.

Taxes aren’t withheld from these payments, like they are when players get paid by their NFL teams. For NIL payments, young men who in most cases have never paid taxes and in many cases don’t know much if anything about the process will have to figure it out.

Or else Uncle Sam will be doing more than pointing.

The source says it’s happening and it will keep happening, because not enough of the players are getting the information they need when they need it.

The end result will be a massive tax bill.

All a’Twitter





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